Predictions for Premier League season 2019/20
We compare predictions for the outcome of Premier League season 2019/20. Included are only popular sites and those who have a web page for reference of the prediction and published before 09.08.2019. Eventually, at the end of the season, we compare all predictions like as it was done for the Premiere League 2018/19.
Sites / Institutes
The following xx sites or institutes have published a prediction or rankings:
- BBC BBC Sport Expert: Phil McNulty
- BVB BetVictor Expert Michael Owen
- BRF Bleacher Report Football Experts
- COC covers.com Betting: covers.com
- ECI EuroClubIndex Algorithm
- ELO ClubElo 06.08.19 Ranking
- FFT FourFourTwo Experts
- FOR Forbes.com Expert: Bobby McMahon
- FST freesupertips Expert: based on betting
- GOI @Goalimpact Algorithm: Player based
- GOP Goalprojection.com Algorithm based on adjusted goals
- KIF KickForm.com Algorithm
- LWF LastWordOnFootball.com Expert
- MIR Mirror.co.uk Expert: Robbie Savage
- NIM 90Min Experts
- OFC OneFootball.com Experts
- OSC oddschecker.com Expert
- RPC Racing Post Expert: BRUCE MILLINGTON
- RTC RadioTimes.com Experts
- SBT BT.com BT.com: AI/Machine learning with data from OPTA, Squawka
- SKY Sky Sport Expert Expert: Matt Le Tissier
- SNB SportNatio.com Betting
- SPI Soccer Power Index Algorithm by @FiveThirtyEight
- SSB Star Spreads Betting - Point Market
- TCO thecourier Expert
- TGC TheGurgler.com Expert
- TFF The football Faithful Experts
- TGT TheGamblingTimes Betting: bet365
- TIT The Irish Times Expert: Patrick Madden
- TMW @Transfermarkt Ranking
- TSF talkSport Experts
- YAH Yahoo Experts
Not all predictions are really predictions but rankings based upon results, market value, and other sophisticated models. Those are included as references. Some of them like @Goalimpact or Club Soccer Index are rankings, but based on their models a prediction was published.
Teams
Predictions
Below the predictions are tabulated in alphabetically order.
Team | BBC | BVB | BRF | COC | ECI | ELO | FFT | FOR | FST | GOI | GOP | KIF | LWF | MIR | NIM | OFC | OSC | RPC | RTC | SBT | SKY | SNB | SPI | SSB | TCO | TFF | TGC | TGT | TIT | TMW | TSF | YAH | ST |
AFCB | 13 | 18 | 13 | 15 | 17 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 19 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 15 | 17 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 11 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 19 | 15 | 12 | 10 | 13 | 13 | 18 |
AVFC | 14 | 14 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 19 | 12 | 15 | 14 | 17 | 13 | 15 | 13 | 15 | 17 | 16 | 17 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 16 | 13 | 18 | 15 | 15 | 17 |
BHAFC | 18 | 16 | 18 | 16 | 20 | 19 | 19 | 17 | 19 | 15 | 20 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 19 | 13 | 15 | 18 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 17 | 20 | 17 | 19 | 16 | 16 | 20 | 15 |
CPFC | 16 | 17 | 19 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 18 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 16 | 12 | 16 | 16 | 18 | 17 | 15 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 12 | 15 | 13 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 12 | 12 | 14 |
AFC | 6 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 8 |
Clarets | 15 | 12 | 11 | 18 | 16 | 15 | 13 | 16 | 15 | 18 | 19 | 16 | 10 | 14 | 15 | 18 | 14 | 16 | 19 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 16 | 16 | 14 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 10 |
CFC | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 4 |
EFC | 7 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 12 |
LFC | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
SaintsFC | 12 | 13 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 16 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 18 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 15 | 14 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 11 |
WatfordFC | 11 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 14 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 12 | 16 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 19 |
LCFC | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 5 |
MCFC | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
MUFC | 5 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
NUFC | 20 | 20 | 17 | 10 | 14 | 12 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 16 | 15 | 12 | 18 | 16 | 17 | 20 | 16 | 19 | 16 | 18 | 15 | 8 | 13 | 17 | 19 | 18 | 18 | 11 | 17 | 14 | 18 | 17 | 13 |
NCFC | 19 | 15 | 15 | 19 | 15 | 17 | 17 | 19 | 17 | 9 | 16 | 18 | 20 | 20 | 18 | 14 | 19 | 20 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 20 | 19 | 12 | 19 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 18 | 20 |
SUFC | 17 | 19 | 20 | 20 | 19 | 18 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 18 | 20 | 19 | 19 | 20 | 19 | 20 | 14 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 18 | 20 | 16 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 19 | 9 |
COYS | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
WHUFC | 10 | 7 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 16 |
WWFC | 9 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 7 |
Graphically all predictions are ordered by the average prediction. Shown are the average prediction as bars together with standard deviation as error bars in grey. The colored points mark the single predictions of the above mentioned sites.
Comparison of average team predictions
For a better comparison we use the difference: $d(m):=\mathsf{rg}_{p}(m)-\mathsf{rg}_{38}(m)$ with $\mathsf{rg}_{p}(m)$ as the average prediction rank of team $m$ and $\mathsf{rg}_{38}(m)$ the rank of team $m$ after match day 38. This deviation from prediction, is a kind of measure, how well they have done! The larger $d$ the better they have performed, negativ $d$ means they have under performed, compared to the predictions. Sorting all teams accordingly from high $d$ to small $d$ is shown in the chart below.
On top are those teams which have over performed and on the bottom those which have under performed. To judge whether it is really over- or under performed so far, those errors must be taken into account. All teams which are placed within this error bars, i.e. from 3.-17. rank, are roughly in the rang one could expect.
So, the really positive surprising teams are Sheffield United and Burnley, the most disappointing teams are Watford, West Ham and Everton.