Predictions for Premier League season 2018/19
We compare predictions for the outcome of Premier League season 2018/19. Included are only popular sites and those who have a web page for reference of the prediction and published before 10.08.2018. Eventually, at the end of the season, we compare all predictions like as it was done for the Bundesliga 2017/18.
Sites / Institutes
The following 28 sites or institutes have published a prediction or rankings:
- BBC =BBC.co.uk Experts: Phil McNulty of BBC
- BIC =@BettingsIsCool Algorithm: Based on betting data.
- DRA =DRatings Alogorithm: Based on own UEFA European Football Club Rankings
- DST =DailyStar Voting: Fan voting collected by dailystar.co.uk
- ECI =EuroClubIndex Algorithm : Based on ranking of historical and actual results of @EuroClubIndex
- EFP =EightyFivePoints.com Algorithm: Based on model by @EightyFivePoints
- ELO =Club ELO Ranking: ELO ranking of English clubs
- EPI =@EuroPlayerIndex Ranking: @Europlayerindex
- ESP =ESPN Experts: Nick Ames from Espn.co.uk
- EXP =Express.co.uk Experts: Express
- FAE =@fussbALEXperte Algorithm: Based on model by alex b
- FBM =Futbolmetrix Algorithm: Based on market value and ELO by @Futbolmetrix1
- FDB =FootballDatabase Ranking: Own ranking based upon games one year backwards
- FOR =Forbes Experts: Robert Kidd from Forbes.com
- FST =Freesupertips.co.uk Betting: Summarizing quotes from betting Blog
- FTE =FiveThirtyEight Algorithm based on Club Soccer Index by |FiveThirtyEight
- GOI =Goalimpact Algorithm: Player based by @goalimapct
- GOP =Goalprojection.com Algorithm: A shot based model by @goalprojection
- LSL =Leicestermercury Betting: Quotes of Sky Bet.
- MIR =Mirror.co.uk Voting: Mirror readers
- MIS =Mitchell Stirling Algorithm: Model by @MitchellSt
- SKA =sportskeeda Experts: Ben Roberts from sportskeeda.
- SKY =Sky Sports User Voting: Sky Sports user.
- TDS =Towards Data Science Algorithm: Network/tensor flow based
- THE =The18 Experts: Alex Conrad from THE18.
- TNS =The National - Sport Expert: Richard Jolly from TNS has analysed all 20 clubs and gives his verdict!
- TMV =Transfermarkt.co.uk Ranking: Transfer Market value
- YAH =Yahoo Sports Experts: Average of columnists of Yahoo Sports.
Not all predictions are really predictions but rankings based upon results, market value, and other sophisticated models. Those are included as references. Some of them like Goalimpact or Club Soccer Index are rankings, but based on their models a prediction was published.
Teams
Predictions
Below the predictions are tabulated in alphabetically order of their abbreviations.
Team | BBC | BIC | DRA | DST | ECI | EFP | ELO | EPI | ESP | EXP | FAE | FBM | FDB | FOR | FST | FTE | GOI | GOP | LSL | MIR | MIS | SKA | SKY | TDS | THE | TNS | TMV | YAH |
AFCB | 14 | 13 | 14 | 19 | 13 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 17 | 13 | 12 | 18 | 13 | 17 | 15 | 16 | 19 | 9 | 11 | 19 | 18 | 14 | 13 | 17 | 12 | 16 | 18 | 16 |
BHAFC | 15 | 20 | 17 | 14 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 13 | 16 | 15 | 16 | 10 | 14 | 16 | 18 | 18 | 12 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 18 | 15 | 18 | 18 | 14 | 17 |
Cardiff | 20 | 18 | 20 | 17 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 20 | 20 | 19 | 15 | 20 | 19 | 19 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 17 | 20 | 10 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 19 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
CPFC | 13 | 11 | 11 | 15 | 15 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 13 | 14 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 8 | 13 | 14 | 18 | 15 | 14 | 12 | 12 |
AFC | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Clarets | 12 | 16 | 13 | 13 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 17 | 9 | 15 | 10 | 14 | 11 | 19 | 15 | 12 | 15 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 10 |
CFC | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 |
EFC | 8 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
FFC | 11 | 14 | 18 | 9 | 12 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 9 | 18 | 20 | 19 | 18 | 12 | 13 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 17 | 13 | 17 | 16 | 8 | 16 | 16 | 12 | 11 | 14 |
LFC | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
Saints | 16 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 14 | 14 | 16 | 13 | 16 | 9 | 15 | 15 | 9 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 9 | 14 | 11 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 15 | 10 | 15 |
Watford | 19 | 17 | 16 | 11 | 18 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 17 | 14 | 18 | 16 | 16 | 18 | 16 | 12 | 17 | 14 | 18 | 17 | 13 | 17 | 15 | 11 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 18 |
HTAFC | 17 | 19 | 19 | 16 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 19 | 19 | 20 | 13 | 11 | 17 | 20 | 19 | 19 | 16 | 20 | 19 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 20 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
LCFC | 10 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 11 |
MCFC | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
MUFC | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
NUFC | 18 | 15 | 9 | 20 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 7 | 17 | 10 | 14 | 11 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 18 | 7 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 18 | 17 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 15 | 8 |
COYS | 4 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
WHUFC | 9 | 8 | 15 | 18 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 18 | 12 | 7 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 9 |
WWFC | 7 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 16 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 12 | 10 | 17 | 9 | 20 | 8 | 11 | 17 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 17 | 13 |
Graphically all predictions are ordered by the average prediction. Shown are the average prediction as bars together with standard deviation as error bars in grey. The colored points mark the single predictions of the above mentioned sites. Asterisks ($\star$) mark betting-predictions, triangles ($\triangle$) votings, bullets ($\bullet$) rankings, diamonds ($\diamond$) experts and squares ($\square$) algorithms.
Comparison of average team predictions
The following chart shows the final Premier League table together with the average predictions as $+$. The red circles mark the final standings. As well, the three best predictions are included (see discussion below), based on the best mean-absolut-error prediction.
For a better comparison we use the difference: $d(m):=\mathsf{rg}_{p}(m)-\mathsf{rg}_{38}(m)$ with $\mathsf{rg}_{p}(m)$ as the average prediction rank of team $m$ and $\mathsf{rg}_{38}(m)$ the rank of team $m$ after match day 38. This deviation from prediction, is a kind of measure, how well they have done! The larger $d$ the better they have performed, negativ $d$ means they have under performed, compared to the predictions. Sorting all teams accordingly from high $d$ to small $d$ is shown in the chart below.
On top are those teams which have over performed and on the bottom those which have under performed. To judge whether it is really over- or under performed so far, those errors must be taken into account. All teams which are placed within this error bars, i.e. from 3.-17. rank, are roughly in the rang one could expect.
So, the really positive surprising teams are really Wolves. The disappointing teams are Burnley, Southampton and Fulham.
The overall deviation of all predictions is best measured by the mean absolut error: $$ mae := \frac{1}{20}\sum_{m=1}^{20} \Big| \mathsf{rg}_{p}(m)-\mathsf{rg}_{38}(m)\Big| = 2.33 \pm 0.50. $$
Best prediction site
Below the prediction sites are listed in order of best mean average error mae, together with the correlation r in the first column. Two experts with pretty good predictions so far are leading the chart: Experts from Express (EXP) and Alex Conrad from THE18 (THE), the betting sites Freesupertips.co.uk (FST) and @BettingsIsCool (BIC).
In the above chart you can compare the actual standings in comparison to average prediction and the prediction of EXP, THE, FST and BIC.
Conclusion
A more detailed analysis will be done later!