Here you see xGoal-differences versus goal-differences for Premiere League season 2018/19 for all clubs. All xGoal-data are collected from Understat.com. The charts will usually be updated after finishing a game day.

The overall xGoal-difference vs Goal-difference has a very high correlation as depicted in the following chart.

The order of teams is alphabetically and the same as in predictions for 2018/19. Squares around the team symbols mark home games and diamonds away games, respectively. Gray symbols belong to the first half of the season, black symbols for the second part.

The regression line goal-difference ($g_d$) vs. xGoal-Differenz ($xG_{d}$): $$ g_d = g_0 + \alpha \cdot xG_{d} $$ is shown in blue. A high efficiency corresponds to a slope $\alpha>1$, $\alpha<1$ to a low efficiency. The axis section $g_0$ indicates how many goals a team scores in games with equal scoring chances ($xG_{G}\simeq 0$). The larger the axis segment, the more often the team has won, conversely a large negative axis segment means that tight games are more often lost. This number is an indication of luck or skill.

  • Zuletzt geändert: 2019/01/21 07:47
  • von admin