Unterschiede
Hier werden die Unterschiede zwischen zwei Versionen angezeigt.
Beide Seiten der vorigen Revision Vorhergehende Überarbeitung | |||
1920:predictions_pl [2019/12/28 09:09] – [Interim results after the first round] admin | 1920:predictions_pl [2020/07/31 08:03] (aktuell) – admin | ||
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Zeile 59: | Zeile 59: | ||
* Newcastle United | * Newcastle United | ||
* Norwich City = #NCFC | * Norwich City = #NCFC | ||
- | * Sheffiled | + | * Sheffield |
* Tottenham Hotspur | * Tottenham Hotspur | ||
* West Ham United | * West Ham United | ||
Zeile 68: | Zeile 68: | ||
==== Predictions ==== | ==== Predictions ==== | ||
Below the predictions are tabulated in alphabetically order. | Below the predictions are tabulated in alphabetically order. | ||
- | |||
|Team | |Team | ||
- | |AFCB | 13| 18| 13| 15| 17| 13| 14| 13| 14| 19| 13| 14| 13| 13| 13| 15| 17| 12| 12| 13| 14| 15| 11| 13| 11| 13| 19| 15| 12| 10| 13| 13| | | + | |AFCB | 13| 18| 13| 15| 17| 13| 14| 13| 14| 19| 13| 14| 13| 13| 13| 15| 17| 12| 12| 13| 14| 15| 11| 13| 11| 13| 19| 15| 12| 10| 13| 13| 18| |
- | |AVFC | + | |AVFC |
- | |BHAFC | + | |BHAFC |
- | |CPFC | + | |CPFC |
- | |AFC | 6 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 5 | | | + | |AFC | 6 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 8| |
- | |Clarets | + | |Clarets |
- | |CFC | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 6 | | | + | |CFC | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 4| |
- | |EFC | 7 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 10| 9 | 10| 8 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | | | + | |EFC | 7 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 10| 9 | 10| 8 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 12| |
- | |LFC | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | | | + | |LFC | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1| |
- | |SaintsFC | 12| 13| 10| 12| 13| 16| 12| 14| 12| 8 | 14| 15| 14| 18| 11| 11| 10| 13| 14| 14| 12| 13| 14| 11| 13| 12| 15| 14| 11| 12| 14| 14| | | + | |SaintsFC | 12| 13| 10| 12| 13| 16| 12| 14| 12| 8 | 14| 15| 14| 18| 11| 11| 10| 13| 14| 14| 12| 13| 14| 11| 13| 12| 15| 14| 11| 12| 14| 14| 11| |
- | |WatfordFC| 11| 11| 12| 13| 12| 14| 11| 11| 11| 14| 12| 13| 11| 11| 12| 12| 12| 11| 11| 12| 11| 12| 15| 12| 16| 11| 11| 12| 14| 13| 11| 11| | | + | |WatfordFC| 11| 11| 12| 13| 12| 14| 11| 11| 11| 14| 12| 13| 11| 11| 12| 12| 12| 11| 11| 12| 11| 12| 15| 12| 16| 11| 11| 12| 14| 13| 11| 11| 19| |
- | |LCFC | + | |LCFC |
- | |MCFC | + | |MCFC |
- | |MUFC | + | |MUFC |
- | |NUFC | + | |NUFC |
- | |NCFC | + | |NCFC |
- | |SUFC | + | |SUFC |
- | |COYS | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | | | + | |COYS | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6| |
- | |WHUFC | + | |WHUFC |
- | |WWFC | 9 | 10| 9 | 7 | 9 | 11| 9 | 7 | 9 | 12| 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 10| 9 | 9 | 10| 10| 8 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 10| 8 | 9 | 11| 9 | 8 | | | + | |WWFC | 9 | 10| 9 | 7 | 9 | 11| 9 | 7 | 9 | 12| 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 10| 9 | 9 | 10| 10| 8 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 10| 8 | 9 | 11| 9 | 8 | 7| |
Graphically all predictions are ordered by the average prediction. Shown are the average prediction as bars together with standard deviation as error bars in grey. The colored points mark the single predictions of the above mentioned sites. | Graphically all predictions are ordered by the average prediction. Shown are the average prediction as bars together with standard deviation as error bars in grey. The colored points mark the single predictions of the above mentioned sites. | ||
Zeile 99: | Zeile 99: | ||
- | ==== Interim results after the first round ==== | ||
- | === Deviation from prediction === | ||
- | {{1920: | ||
- | === Prediction score === | ||
- | {{1920: | ||
- | /* | ||
==== Comparison of average team predictions ==== | ==== Comparison of average team predictions ==== | ||
+ | /* | ||
The following chart shows the final Premier League table together with the average predictions as $+$. The red circles mark the final standings. As well, the three best predictions are included (see discussion below), based on the //best// mean-absolut-error prediction. | The following chart shows the final Premier League table together with the average predictions as $+$. The red circles mark the final standings. As well, the three best predictions are included (see discussion below), based on the //best// mean-absolut-error prediction. | ||
- | {{1920:pred_pl_st.png? | + | {{1920:pred_mw-st_pl.png? |
+ | */ | ||
For a better comparison we use the difference: $d(m): | For a better comparison we use the difference: $d(m): | ||
Zeile 116: | Zeile 112: | ||
On top are those teams which have //over performed// and on the bottom those which have //under performed// | On top are those teams which have //over performed// and on the bottom those which have //under performed// | ||
- | So, the really **positive surprising** teams are really | + | So, the really **positive surprising** teams are **Sheffield United** and **Burnley**, the most disappointing teams are **Watford**, |
- | */ | + | |
+ | ==== Comparison best prediction ==== | ||
+ | The chart with the best prediction ordered by means of smallest mean-average-error $d$, is shown below. | ||
+ | |||
+ | {{1920: | ||
+ | |||
+ | The two best predictions are the expert from // | ||
{{tag> | {{tag> |