Unterschiede

Hier werden die Unterschiede zwischen zwei Versionen angezeigt.

--- 1920:predictions_pl [2019/08/09 16:57] – [Sites / Institutes] admin
+++ 1920:predictions_pl [2019/12/28 09:09] – [Interim results after the first round] admin
@@ Zeile 11: / Zeile 11: @@
   * ECI [[https://www.euroclubindex.com/league-odds/|EuroClubIndex]] Algorithm
   * ELO [[http://clubelo.com/ENG|ClubElo 06.08.19]] Ranking
-  * FFT - [[https://www.fourfourtwo.com/features/predicted-premier-league-table-201920-man-utd-arsenal-liverpool-chelsea-man-city-tottenham|FourFourTwo]] Experts
+  * FFT [[https://www.fourfourtwo.com/features/predicted-premier-league-table-201920-man-utd-arsenal-liverpool-chelsea-man-city-tottenham|FourFourTwo]] Experts
   * FOR [[https://www.forbes.com/sites/bobbymcmahon/2019/08/09/premier-league-201920-predictions/|Forbes.com]] Expert: Bobby McMahon
   * FST [[https://www.freesupertips.com/news/fsts-premier-league-full-table-prediction/|freesupertips]] Expert: based on betting
-  * GOI - [[https://twitter.com/Goalimpact/status/1159539025021157376|@Goalimpact]] Algorithm: Player based
+  * GOI [[https://twitter.com/Goalimpact/status/1159539025021157376|@Goalimpact]] Algorithm: Player based
   * GOP [[https://goalprojection.com/2019/08/04/2019-2020-premier-league-projection/|Goalprojection.com]] Algorithm based on adjusted goals
   * KIF [[https://www.kickform.com/premier-league-tipps/|KickForm.com]] Algorithm
   * LWF [[https://lastwordonfootball.com/2019/08/05/premier-league-predictions-2019-2020-final-table/|LastWordOnFootball.com]] Expert
+  * MIR [[https://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/robbie-savages-premier-league-predictions-18876667|Mirror.co.uk]] Expert: Robbie Savage
   * NIM [[https://www.90min.com/posts/6427973-premier-league-table-90min-experts-cough-predict-2019-20-finishing-positions|90Min]] Experts
+  * OFC [[https://onefootball.com/en/news/the-201920-premier-league-table-predicted-en-26687118?variable=20190810|OneFootball.com]] Experts
   * OSC [[https://www.oddschecker.com/tips/football/20190806-premier-league-2019-20-betting-tips-predictions|oddschecker.com]] Expert
   * RPC [[https://www.racingpost.com/sport/ranked-all-20-premier-league-clubs-in-order-of-finishing-position/394223|Racing Post]] Expert: BRUCE MILLINGTON
   * RTC [[https://www.radiotimes.com/news/sport/2019-08-04/premier-league-2019-20-season-preview-every-team-rated-predictions/|RadioTimes.com]] Experts
   * SBT [[https://sport.bt.com/the-script/the-script-of-the-201920-season-google-opta-and-squawka-predict-premier-league-champions-league-and-europa-league-outcomes-S11364380558801|BT.com]] BT.com: AI/Machine learning with data from OPTA, Squawka
-  * SKE - [[https://www.skysports.com/football/news/29329/11780224/predicted-premier-league-table-201920-matt-le-tissiers-verdict-ahead-of-opening-game|Sky Sport Expert]] Expert: Matt Le Tissier
+  * SKY [[https://www.skysports.com/football/news/29329/11780224/predicted-premier-league-table-201920-matt-le-tissiers-verdict-ahead-of-opening-game|Sky Sport Expert]] Expert: Matt Le Tissier
-  * SKU - [[https://www.skysports.com/football/news/29329/11780224/predicted-premier-league-table-201920-matt-le-tissiers-verdict-ahead-of-opening-game|Sky Sport User]] Voting
   * SNB [[https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/football/9289224/premier-league-table-supercomputer-man-utd-arsenal/|SportNatio.com]] Betting
   * SPI [[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/|Soccer Power Index]] Algorithm by @FiveThirtyEight
@@ Zeile 30: / Zeile 31: @@
   * TCO [[http://www.thecourieronline.co.uk/premier-league-predictions-2019-20/|thecourier]] Expert
   * TGC [[http://www.thegurgler.com/2019/08/06/a-who-cares-2019-20-premier-league-season-predictions/|TheGurgler.com]] Expert
-  * TFF - [[https://thefootballfaithful.com/premier-league-2019-20-predictions-city-liverpool-united-arsenal/|The football Faithful]] Experts
+  * TFF [[https://thefootballfaithful.com/premier-league-2019-20-predictions-city-liverpool-united-arsenal/|The football Faithful]] Experts
   * TGT [[https://www.thegamblingtimes.com/2019/08/07/premier-league-preview-2019/|TheGamblingTimes]] Betting: bet365
-  * TIT - [[https://www.irishtimes.com/sport/soccer/english-soccer/premier-league-team-by-team-guide-to-the-new-season-1.3979790|The Irish Times]] Expert: Patrick Madden
+  * TIT [[https://www.irishtimes.com/sport/soccer/english-soccer/premier-league-team-by-team-guide-to-the-new-season-1.3979790|The Irish Times]] Expert: Patrick Madden
-  * TMW - [[https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/premier-league/marktwerteverein/wettbewerb/GB1/plus/?stichtag=2019-08-01|@Transfermarkt]] Ranking
+  * TMW [[https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/premier-league/marktwerteverein/wettbewerb/GB1/plus/?stichtag=2019-08-01|@Transfermarkt]] Ranking
   * TSF [[https://talksport.com/football/577410/ultimate-2019-20-premier-league-preview-everything-you-need-to-know-including-fixtures-signings-kits-odds/|talkSport]] Experts
-  * YAH - [[https://sports.yahoo.com/premier-league-preview-predictions-for-the-201920-season-231120516.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAACxRowY80iQht8v5I23AvLVutAe8ji6XlawIqWEnP5UBXwmSnNRQ2dgd0XE8EAE0fZ6xsNi8mZOGovu7HBYoYeRpqS2BuHyn__2Q2bKzn7pN38JjtKhK1PQylNCBzGhKgQpn2KIymUvD_gws42APd2IdgBYI4zBW9-eNqSD8TKJw|Yahoo]] Experts
+  * YAH [[https://sports.yahoo.com/premier-league-preview-predictions-for-the-201920-season-231120516.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAACxRowY80iQht8v5I23AvLVutAe8ji6XlawIqWEnP5UBXwmSnNRQ2dgd0XE8EAE0fZ6xsNi8mZOGovu7HBYoYeRpqS2BuHyn__2Q2bKzn7pN38JjtKhK1PQylNCBzGhKgQpn2KIymUvD_gws42APd2IdgBYI4zBW9-eNqSD8TKJw|Yahoo]] Experts
@@ Zeile 70: / Zeile 69: @@
 Below the predictions are tabulated in alphabetically order.
-|Team     |BBC|BVB|BRF|COC|ECI|ELO|FOR|FST|GOP|KIF|LWF|NIM|OSC|RPC|RTC|SBT|SNB|SPI|SSB|TCO|TGC|TGT|TSF| ST|
+|Team     |BBC|BVB|BRF|COC|ECI|ELO|FFT|FOR|FST|GOI|GOP|KIF|LWF|MIR|NIM|OFC|OSC|RPC|RTC|SBT|SKY|SNB|SPI|SSB|TCO|TFF|TGC|TGT|TIT|TMW|TSF|YAH| ST|
-|AFCB     | 13| 18| 13| 15| 17| 13| 13| 14| 13| 14| 13| 13| 17| 12| 12| 13| 15| 11| 13| 11| 19| 15| 13| |
+|AFCB     | 13| 18| 13| 15| 17| 13| 14| 13| 14| 19| 13| 14| 13| 13| 13| 15| 17| 12| 12| 13| 14| 15| 11| 13| 11| 13| 19| 15| 12| 10| 13| 13| |
-|AVFC	  | 14| 14| 16| 17| 18| 20| 15| 16| 17| 19| 12| 14| 13| 15| 13| 15| 16| 17| 15| 15| 14| 16| 15| |
+|AVFC	  | 14| 14| 16| 17| 18| 20| 15| 15| 16| 17| 17| 19| 12| 15| 14| 17| 13| 15| 13| 15| 17| 16| 17| 15| 15| 14| 14| 16| 13| 18| 15| 15| |
-|BHAFC	  | 18| 16| 18| 16| 20| 19| 17| 19| 20| 17| 17| 19| 15| 18| 17| 16| 17| 18| 18| 17| 20| 17| 16| |
+|BHAFC	  | 18| 16| 18| 16| 20| 19| 19| 17| 19| 15| 20| 17| 17| 17| 19| 13| 15| 18| 17| 16| 16| 17| 18| 18| 17| 17| 20| 17| 19| 16| 16| 20| |
-|CPFC	  | 16| 17| 19| 14| 10| 8 | 10| 10| 10| 10| 16| 16| 18| 17| 15| 10| 14| 10| 14| 12| 13| 13| 12| |
+|CPFC	  | 16| 17| 19| 14| 10| 8 | 18| 10| 10| 10| 10| 10| 16| 12| 16| 16| 18| 17| 15| 10| 13| 14| 10| 14| 12| 15| 13| 13| 15| 15| 12| 12| |
-|AFC	  | 6 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 6 | |
+|AFC	  | 6 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 5 | |
-|Clarets  | 15| 12| 11| 18| 16| 15| 16| 15| 19| 16| 10| 15| 14| 16| 19| 17| 18| 16| 16| 14| 17| 18| 17| |
+|Clarets  | 15| 12| 11| 18| 16| 15| 13| 16| 15| 18| 19| 16| 10| 14| 15| 18| 14| 16| 19| 17| 18| 18| 16| 16| 14| 16| 17| 18| 16| 17| 17| 16| |
-|CFC	  | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 4 | |
+|CFC	  | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 6 | |
-|EFC	  | 7 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | |
+|EFC	  | 7 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 10| 9 | 10| 8 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | |
-|LFC	  | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
+|LFC	  | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
-|SaintsFC | 12| 13| 10| 12| 13| 16| 14| 12| 14| 15| 14| 11| 10| 13| 14| 14| 13| 14| 11| 13| 15| 14| 14| |
+|SaintsFC | 12| 13| 10| 12| 13| 16| 12| 14| 12| 8 | 14| 15| 14| 18| 11| 11| 10| 13| 14| 14| 12| 13| 14| 11| 13| 12| 15| 14| 11| 12| 14| 14| |
-|WatfordFC| 11| 11| 12| 13| 12| 14| 11| 11| 12| 13| 11| 12| 12| 11| 11| 12| 12| 15| 12| 16| 11| 12| 11| |
+|WatfordFC| 11| 11| 12| 13| 12| 14| 11| 11| 11| 14| 12| 13| 11| 11| 12| 12| 12| 11| 11| 12| 11| 12| 15| 12| 16| 11| 11| 12| 14| 13| 11| 11| |
-|LCFC	  | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 10| 8 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 8 | |
+|LCFC	  | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 13| 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 10| 8 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | |
-|MCFC	  | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
+|MCFC	  | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
-|MUFC	  | 5 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 5 | |
+|MUFC	  | 5 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | |
-|NUFC	  | 20| 20| 17| 10| 14| 12| 18| 18| 15| 12| 18| 17| 16| 19| 16| 18|  8| 13| 17| 19| 18| 11| 18| |
+|NUFC	  | 20| 20| 17| 10| 14| 12| 18| 18| 18| 16| 15| 12| 18| 16| 17| 20| 16| 19| 16| 18| 15|  8| 13| 17| 19| 18| 18| 11| 17| 14| 18| 17| |
-|NCFC	  | 19| 15| 15| 19| 15| 17| 19| 17| 16| 18| 20| 18| 19| 20| 18| 19| 19| 19| 19| 20| 12| 19| 19| |
+|NCFC	  | 19| 15| 15| 19| 15| 17| 17| 19| 17| 9 | 16| 18| 20| 20| 18| 14| 19| 20| 18| 19| 19| 19| 19| 19| 20| 19| 12| 19| 18| 19| 19| 18| |
-|SUFC	  | 17| 19| 20| 20| 19| 18| 20| 20| 18| 20| 19| 20| 20| 14| 20| 20| 20| 20| 20| 18| 16| 20| 20| |
+|SUFC	  | 17| 19| 20| 20| 19| 18| 20| 20| 20| 20| 18| 20| 19| 19| 20| 19| 20| 14| 20| 20| 20| 20| 20| 20| 18| 20| 16| 20| 20| 20| 20| 19| |
-|COYS     | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |
+|COYS     | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |
-|WHUFC	  | 10| 7 | 14| 11| 11| 10| 12| 13| 11| 11| 15| 8 | 11| 9 | 9 | 11| 11| 12| 10| 10| 9 | 10| 10| |
+|WHUFC	  | 10| 7 | 14| 11| 11| 10| 10| 12| 13| 11| 11| 11| 15| 9 | 8 | 8 | 11| 9 | 9 | 11| 10| 11| 12| 10| 10| 10| 9 | 10| 10| 9 | 10| 10| |
-|WWFC     | 9 | 10| 9 | 7 | 9 | 11| 7 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 10| 9 | 10| 10| 8 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 10| 8 | 9 | |
+|WWFC     | 9 | 10| 9 | 7 | 9 | 11| 9 | 7 | 9 | 12| 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 10| 9 | 9 | 10| 10| 8 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 10| 8 | 9 | 11| 9 | 8 | |
+Graphically all predictions are ordered by the average prediction. Shown are the average prediction as bars together with standard deviation as error bars in grey. The colored points mark the single predictions of the above mentioned sites.
-/* Graphically all predictions are ordered by the average prediction. Shown are the average prediction as bars together with standard deviation as error bars in grey. The colored points mark the single predictions of the above mentioned sites. Asterisks ($\star$) mark betting-predictions, triangles ($\triangle$) votings, bullets ($\bullet$) rankings, diamonds ($\diamond$) experts and squares ($\square$) algorithms.
+/* Asterisks ($\star$) mark betting-predictions, triangles ($\triangle$) votings, bullets ($\bullet$) rankings, diamonds ($\diamond$) experts and squares ($\square$) algorithms.
 */
 {{1920:pred_pl.png?640}}
+==== Interim results after the first round ====
+=== Deviation from prediction ===
+{{1920:pred_mw-st_pl.png?640}}
+=== Prediction score ===
+{{1920:mae_pl.png?640}}
 /*
 ==== Comparison of average team predictions ====
 The following chart shows the final Premier League table together with the average predictions as $+$. The red circles mark the final standings. As well, the three best predictions are included (see discussion below), based on  the //best// mean-absolut-error prediction.
-{{1819:pred_pl_st.png?640}}
+{{1920:pred_pl_st.png?640}}
 For a better comparison we use the difference: $d(m):=\mathsf{rg}_{p}(m)-\mathsf{rg}_{38}(m)$ with $\mathsf{rg}_{p}(m)$ as the average prediction rank of team $m$ and $\mathsf{rg}_{38}(m)$ the rank of team $m$ after match day 38. This deviation from prediction, is a kind of measure, //how well they have done!// The larger $d$ the better they have performed, negativ $d$ means they have under performed, compared to the predictions. Sorting all teams accordingly from high $d$ to small $d$ is shown in the chart below.
-{{1819:pred_mw-st_pl.png?640}}
+{{1920:pred_mw-st_pl.png?640}}
 On top are those teams which have //over performed// and on the bottom those which have //under performed//.  To judge whether it is really over- or under performed so far, those errors must be taken into account. All teams which are placed within this error bars, i.e. from 3.-17. rank, are roughly in the rang one could expect.