Unterschiede
Hier werden die Unterschiede zwischen zwei Versionen angezeigt.
| Beide Seiten der vorigen Revision Vorhergehende Überarbeitung Nächste Überarbeitung | Vorhergehende Überarbeitung Nächste ÜberarbeitungBeide Seiten der Revision | ||
| 1819:predictions_pl [2019/05/12 18:53] – [Best prediction site] admin | 1819:predictions_pl [2019/05/12 19:02] – [Conclusion] admin | ||
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| Zeile 109: | Zeile 109: | ||
| The overall deviation of all predictions is best measured by the [[statistik: | The overall deviation of all predictions is best measured by the [[statistik: | ||
| $$ | $$ | ||
| - | mae := \frac{1}{20}\sum_{m=1}^{20} \Big| \mathsf{rg}_{p}(m)-\mathsf{rg}_{38}(m)\Big| = 1.59. | + | mae := \frac{1}{20}\sum_{m=1}^{20} \Big| \mathsf{rg}_{p}(m)-\mathsf{rg}_{38}(m)\Big| = 2.33 \pm 0.50. |
| $$ | $$ | ||
| Zeile 116: | Zeile 116: | ||
| ==== Best prediction site ==== | ==== Best prediction site ==== | ||
| - | Below the prediction sites are listed in order of best mean average error **mae**, together with the correlation **r** in the first column. Two experts with pretty good predictions so far are leading the chart: **[[https:// | + | Below the prediction sites are listed in order of best mean average error **mae**, together with the correlation **r** in the first column. Two experts with pretty good predictions so far are leading the chart: **[[https:// |
| In the above chart you can compare the actual standings in comparison to average prediction and the prediction of **EXP, THE, FST** and **BIC**. | In the above chart you can compare the actual standings in comparison to average prediction and the prediction of **EXP, THE, FST** and **BIC**. | ||
| Zeile 124: | Zeile 124: | ||
| ==== Conclusion ==== | ==== Conclusion ==== | ||
| - | Will be done at the end of season! | + | A more detailed analysis will be done later! |