Unterschiede
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Beide Seiten der vorigen Revision Vorhergehende Überarbeitung Nächste Überarbeitung | Vorhergehende Überarbeitung Nächste ÜberarbeitungBeide Seiten der Revision | ||
wm18:pgwm18 [2018/07/15 20:18] – admin | wm18:pgwm18 [2018/07/15 20:43] – [Conclusion] admin | ||
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==== Conclusion ==== | ==== Conclusion ==== | ||
- | It is hard - maybe even impossible - to judge, which is the best prediction model. First of all, the data number is rather small, we have 16 predictions for the group stage and 15 predictions for the knockout stage, altogether $N=31$. | + | It is hard to judge, which is the best prediction model. First of all, the data number is rather small. We have 16 predictions for the group stage and 15 predictions for the knockout stage, altogether $N=31$. Second, there is not a single |
- | Second, there is not a single | + | |
+ | To give a rough overview about the significance of the result let us assume, that for every single prediction the statistical error is 1% (rough estimate). With usual error propagation one can deduce an error estimation for $P$. This error is shown in the above chart by grey error bars. As can be seen, the first three predictions are within this error bars equal and fourth and fifth place are not that far away. | ||
+ | |||
+ | Anyway, let us draw a conclusion and keep in mind the above reasoning. The //best// prediction was done by **FTE**, and with a small gap **GOP** and **SUD** are the //second best// | ||