1920:predictions_pl

We compare predictions for the outcome of Premier League season 2019/20. Included are only popular sites and those who have a web page for reference of the prediction and published before 09.08.2019. Eventually, at the end of the season, we compare all predictions like as it was done for the Premiere League 2018/19.

The following xx sites or institutes have published a prediction or rankings:

Not all predictions are really predictions but rankings based upon results, market value, and other sophisticated models. Those are included as references. Some of them like @Goalimpact or Club Soccer Index are rankings, but based on their models a prediction was published.

• AFC Bournemouth = #AFCB
• Aston Villa = #AVFC
• Brighton & Hove Albion = #BHAFC
• Crystal Palace = #CPFC
• FC Arsenal = #AFC
• FC Burnley = #Clarets
• FC Chelsea = #CFC
• FC Everton = #EFC
• FC Liverpool = #LFC
• FC Southampton = #SaintsFC
• FC Watford = #WatfordFC
• Leicester City = #LCFC
• Manchester City = #MCFC
• Manchester United = #MUFC
• Newcastle United = #NUFC
• Norwich City = #NCFC
• Sheffield United = #SUFC
• Tottenham Hotspur = #COYS
• West Ham United = #WHUFC
• Wolverhampton Wanderers = #WWFC

Below the predictions are tabulated in alphabetically order.

 Team BBC BVB BRF COC ECI ELO FFT FOR FST GOI GOP KIF LWF MIR NIM OFC OSC RPC RTC SBT SKY SNB SPI SSB TCO TFF TGC TGT TIT TMW TSF YAH ST AFCB 13 18 13 15 17 13 14 13 14 19 13 14 13 13 13 15 17 12 12 13 14 15 11 13 11 13 19 15 12 10 13 13 18 AVFC 14 14 16 17 18 20 15 15 16 17 17 19 12 15 14 17 13 15 13 15 17 16 17 15 15 14 14 16 13 18 15 15 17 BHAFC 18 16 18 16 20 19 19 17 19 15 20 17 17 17 19 13 15 18 17 16 16 17 18 18 17 17 20 17 19 16 16 20 15 CPFC 16 17 19 14 10 8 18 10 10 10 10 10 16 12 16 16 18 17 15 10 13 14 10 14 12 15 13 13 15 15 12 12 14 AFC 6 6 4 6 6 5 4 4 4 6 7 5 6 5 4 4 4 8 4 5 6 6 5 5 4 5 6 6 4 6 6 5 8 Clarets 15 12 11 18 16 15 13 16 15 18 19 16 10 14 15 18 14 16 19 17 18 18 16 16 14 16 17 18 16 17 17 16 10 CFC 4 4 5 5 3 4 7 6 5 5 4 4 5 6 6 5 6 6 6 4 4 4 3 6 8 6 4 4 5 4 4 6 4 EFC 7 9 7 8 7 7 8 8 8 7 6 7 9 10 9 10 8 5 8 7 8 9 7 8 7 9 7 7 7 7 7 7 12 LFC 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 SaintsFC 12 13 10 12 13 16 12 14 12 8 14 15 14 18 11 11 10 13 14 14 12 13 14 11 13 12 15 14 11 12 14 14 11 WatfordFC 11 11 12 13 12 14 11 11 11 14 12 13 11 11 12 12 12 11 11 12 11 12 15 12 16 11 11 12 14 13 11 11 19 LCFC 8 8 8 9 8 9 6 9 7 13 8 8 7 7 7 6 7 4 7 9 7 10 8 7 9 7 5 9 8 8 8 9 5 MCFC 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 MUFC 5 5 6 4 5 6 5 5 6 4 5 6 4 4 5 7 5 7 5 6 5 5 6 4 5 4 8 5 6 5 5 4 3 NUFC 20 20 17 10 14 12 18 18 18 16 15 12 18 16 17 20 16 19 16 18 15 8 13 17 19 18 18 11 17 14 18 17 13 NCFC 19 15 15 19 15 17 17 19 17 9 16 18 20 20 18 14 19 20 18 19 19 19 19 19 20 19 12 19 18 19 19 18 20 SUFC 17 19 20 20 19 18 20 20 20 20 18 20 19 19 20 19 20 14 20 20 20 20 20 20 18 20 16 20 20 20 20 19 9 COYS 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 6 WHUFC 10 7 14 11 11 10 10 12 13 11 11 11 15 9 8 8 11 9 9 11 10 11 12 10 10 10 9 10 10 9 10 10 16 WWFC 9 10 9 7 9 11 9 7 9 12 9 9 8 8 10 9 9 10 10 8 9 7 9 9 6 8 10 8 9 11 9 8 7

Graphically all predictions are ordered by the average prediction. Shown are the average prediction as bars together with standard deviation as error bars in grey. The colored points mark the single predictions of the above mentioned sites.

For a better comparison we use the difference: $d(m):=\mathsf{rg}_{p}(m)-\mathsf{rg}_{38}(m)$ with $\mathsf{rg}_{p}(m)$ as the average prediction rank of team $m$ and $\mathsf{rg}_{38}(m)$ the rank of team $m$ after match day 38. This deviation from prediction, is a kind of measure, how well they have done! The larger $d$ the better they have performed, negativ $d$ means they have under performed, compared to the predictions. Sorting all teams accordingly from high $d$ to small $d$ is shown in the chart below.

On top are those teams which have over performed and on the bottom those which have under performed. To judge whether it is really over- or under performed so far, those errors must be taken into account. All teams which are placed within this error bars, i.e. from 3.-17. rank, are roughly in the rang one could expect.

So, the really positive surprising teams are Sheffield United and Burnley, the most disappointing teams are Watford, West Ham and Everton.

The chart with the best prediction ordered by means of smallest mean-average-error $d$, is shown below.

The two best predictions are the expert from lastwordonfootball.com LWF and the betting ranking covers.com COC.

• Zuletzt geändert: 2020/07/31 08:03