1920:predictions_pl

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1920:predictions_pl [2019/12/28 09:09] – [Interim results after the first round] admin1920:predictions_pl [2020/07/31 08:03] (aktuell) – admin
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   * Newcastle United         = #NUFC      {{t:nufc.png?15}}     * Newcastle United         = #NUFC      {{t:nufc.png?15}}  
   * Norwich City                = #NCFC       {{t:ncfc.png?15}}   * Norwich City                = #NCFC       {{t:ncfc.png?15}}
-  * Sheffiled United            = #SUFC      {{t:sufc.png?15}}+  * Sheffield United            = #SUFC      {{t:sufc.png?15}}
   * Tottenham Hotspur         = #COYS     {{t:coys.png?15}}      * Tottenham Hotspur         = #COYS     {{t:coys.png?15}}   
   * West Ham United         = #WHUFC {{t:whufc.png?15}}          * West Ham United         = #WHUFC {{t:whufc.png?15}}       
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 ==== Predictions ==== ==== Predictions ====
 Below the predictions are tabulated in alphabetically order.  Below the predictions are tabulated in alphabetically order. 
- 
 |Team     |BBC|BVB|BRF|COC|ECI|ELO|FFT|FOR|FST|GOI|GOP|KIF|LWF|MIR|NIM|OFC|OSC|RPC|RTC|SBT|SKY|SNB|SPI|SSB|TCO|TFF|TGC|TGT|TIT|TMW|TSF|YAH| ST| |Team     |BBC|BVB|BRF|COC|ECI|ELO|FFT|FOR|FST|GOI|GOP|KIF|LWF|MIR|NIM|OFC|OSC|RPC|RTC|SBT|SKY|SNB|SPI|SSB|TCO|TFF|TGC|TGT|TIT|TMW|TSF|YAH| ST|
-|AFCB     | 13| 18| 13| 15| 17| 13| 14| 13| 14| 19| 13| 14| 13| 13| 13| 15| 17| 12| 12| 13| 14| 15| 11| 13| 11| 13| 19| 15| 12| 10| 13| 13| | +|AFCB     | 13| 18| 13| 15| 17| 13| 14| 13| 14| 19| 13| 14| 13| 13| 13| 15| 17| 12| 12| 13| 14| 15| 11| 13| 11| 13| 19| 15| 12| 10| 13| 13| 18| 
-|AVFC   | 14| 14| 16| 17| 18| 20| 15| 15| 16| 17| 17| 19| 12| 15| 14| 17| 13| 15| 13| 15| 17| 16| 17| 15| 15| 14| 14| 16| 13| 18| 15| 15| | +|AVFC   | 14| 14| 16| 17| 18| 20| 15| 15| 16| 17| 17| 19| 12| 15| 14| 17| 13| 15| 13| 15| 17| 16| 17| 15| 15| 14| 14| 16| 13| 18| 15| 15| 17| 
-|BHAFC   | 18| 16| 18| 16| 20| 19| 19| 17| 19| 15| 20| 17| 17| 17| 19| 13| 15| 18| 17| 16| 16| 17| 18| 18| 17| 17| 20| 17| 19| 16| 16| 20| | +|BHAFC   | 18| 16| 18| 16| 20| 19| 19| 17| 19| 15| 20| 17| 17| 17| 19| 13| 15| 18| 17| 16| 16| 17| 18| 18| 17| 17| 20| 17| 19| 16| 16| 20| 15| 
-|CPFC   | 16| 17| 19| 14| 10| 8 | 18| 10| 10| 10| 10| 10| 16| 12| 16| 16| 18| 17| 15| 10| 13| 14| 10| 14| 12| 15| 13| 13| 15| 15| 12| 12| | +|CPFC   | 16| 17| 19| 14| 10| 8 | 18| 10| 10| 10| 10| 10| 16| 12| 16| 16| 18| 17| 15| 10| 13| 14| 10| 14| 12| 15| 13| 13| 15| 15| 12| 12| 14| 
-|AFC   | 6 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 5 | | +|AFC   | 6 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 5 |  8| 
-|Clarets  | 15| 12| 11| 18| 16| 15| 13| 16| 15| 18| 19| 16| 10| 14| 15| 18| 14| 16| 19| 17| 18| 18| 16| 16| 14| 16| 17| 18| 16| 17| 17| 16| | +|Clarets  | 15| 12| 11| 18| 16| 15| 13| 16| 15| 18| 19| 16| 10| 14| 15| 18| 14| 16| 19| 17| 18| 18| 16| 16| 14| 16| 17| 18| 16| 17| 17| 16| 10| 
-|CFC   | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 6 | | +|CFC   | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 6 |  4| 
-|EFC   | 7 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 10| 9 | 10| 8 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | | +|EFC   | 7 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 10| 9 | 10| 8 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 12| 
-|LFC   | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | | +|LFC   | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |  1| 
-|SaintsFC | 12| 13| 10| 12| 13| 16| 12| 14| 12| 8 | 14| 15| 14| 18| 11| 11| 10| 13| 14| 14| 12| 13| 14| 11| 13| 12| 15| 14| 11| 12| 14| 14| | +|SaintsFC | 12| 13| 10| 12| 13| 16| 12| 14| 12| 8 | 14| 15| 14| 18| 11| 11| 10| 13| 14| 14| 12| 13| 14| 11| 13| 12| 15| 14| 11| 12| 14| 14| 11| 
-|WatfordFC| 11| 11| 12| 13| 12| 14| 11| 11| 11| 14| 12| 13| 11| 11| 12| 12| 12| 11| 11| 12| 11| 12| 15| 12| 16| 11| 11| 12| 14| 13| 11| 11| | +|WatfordFC| 11| 11| 12| 13| 12| 14| 11| 11| 11| 14| 12| 13| 11| 11| 12| 12| 12| 11| 11| 12| 11| 12| 15| 12| 16| 11| 11| 12| 14| 13| 11| 11| 19| 
-|LCFC   | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 13| 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 10| 8 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | | +|LCFC   | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 13| 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 10| 8 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 |  5| 
-|MCFC   | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | | +|MCFC   | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |  2| 
-|MUFC   | 5 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | | +|MUFC   | 5 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 |  3| 
-|NUFC   | 20| 20| 17| 10| 14| 12| 18| 18| 18| 16| 15| 12| 18| 16| 17| 20| 16| 19| 16| 18| 15|  8| 13| 17| 19| 18| 18| 11| 17| 14| 18| 17| | +|NUFC   | 20| 20| 17| 10| 14| 12| 18| 18| 18| 16| 15| 12| 18| 16| 17| 20| 16| 19| 16| 18| 15|  8| 13| 17| 19| 18| 18| 11| 17| 14| 18| 17| 13| 
-|NCFC   | 19| 15| 15| 19| 15| 17| 17| 19| 17| 9 | 16| 18| 20| 20| 18| 14| 19| 20| 18| 19| 19| 19| 19| 19| 20| 19| 12| 19| 18| 19| 19| 18| | +|NCFC   | 19| 15| 15| 19| 15| 17| 17| 19| 17| 9 | 16| 18| 20| 20| 18| 14| 19| 20| 18| 19| 19| 19| 19| 19| 20| 19| 12| 19| 18| 19| 19| 18| 20| 
-|SUFC   | 17| 19| 20| 20| 19| 18| 20| 20| 20| 20| 18| 20| 19| 19| 20| 19| 20| 14| 20| 20| 20| 20| 20| 20| 18| 20| 16| 20| 20| 20| 20| 19| | +|SUFC   | 17| 19| 20| 20| 19| 18| 20| 20| 20| 20| 18| 20| 19| 19| 20| 19| 20| 14| 20| 20| 20| 20| 20| 20| 18| 20| 16| 20| 20| 20| 20| 19|  9| 
-|COYS     | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | | +|COYS     | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |  6| 
-|WHUFC   | 10| 7 | 14| 11| 11| 10| 10| 12| 13| 11| 11| 11| 15| 9 | 8 | 8 | 11| 9 | 9 | 11| 10| 11| 12| 10| 10| 10| 9 | 10| 10| 9 | 10| 10| | +|WHUFC   | 10| 7 | 14| 11| 11| 10| 10| 12| 13| 11| 11| 11| 15| 9 | 8 | 8 | 11| 9 | 9 | 11| 10| 11| 12| 10| 10| 10| 9 | 10| 10| 9 | 10| 10| 16| 
-|WWFC     | 9 | 10| 9 | 7 | 9 | 11| 9 | 7 | 9 | 12| 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 10| 9 | 9 | 10| 10| 8 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 10| 8 | 9 | 11| 9 | 8 | |+|WWFC     | 9 | 10| 9 | 7 | 9 | 11| 9 | 7 | 9 | 12| 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 10| 9 | 9 | 10| 10| 8 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 10| 8 | 9 | 11| 9 | 8 |  7| 
  
 Graphically all predictions are ordered by the average prediction. Shown are the average prediction as bars together with standard deviation as error bars in grey. The colored points mark the single predictions of the above mentioned sites.  Graphically all predictions are ordered by the average prediction. Shown are the average prediction as bars together with standard deviation as error bars in grey. The colored points mark the single predictions of the above mentioned sites. 
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-==== Interim results after the first round ==== 
-=== Deviation from prediction === 
-{{1920:pred_mw-st_pl.png?640}}  
-=== Prediction score === 
-{{1920:mae_pl.png?640}} 
-/* 
 ==== Comparison of average team predictions ==== ==== Comparison of average team predictions ====
 +/*
 The following chart shows the final Premier League table together with the average predictions as $+$. The red circles mark the final standings. As well, the three best predictions are included (see discussion below), based on  the //best// mean-absolut-error prediction.  The following chart shows the final Premier League table together with the average predictions as $+$. The red circles mark the final standings. As well, the three best predictions are included (see discussion below), based on  the //best// mean-absolut-error prediction. 
  
-{{1920:pred_pl_st.png?640}} +{{1920:pred_mw-st_pl.png?640}}  
 +*/
  
 For a better comparison we use the difference: $d(m):=\mathsf{rg}_{p}(m)-\mathsf{rg}_{38}(m)$ with $\mathsf{rg}_{p}(m)$ as the average prediction rank of team $m$ and $\mathsf{rg}_{38}(m)$ the rank of team $m$ after match day 38. This deviation from prediction, is a kind of measure, //how well they have done!// The larger $d$ the better they have performed, negativ $d$ means they have under performed, compared to the predictions. Sorting all teams accordingly from high $d$ to small $d$ is shown in the chart below.  For a better comparison we use the difference: $d(m):=\mathsf{rg}_{p}(m)-\mathsf{rg}_{38}(m)$ with $\mathsf{rg}_{p}(m)$ as the average prediction rank of team $m$ and $\mathsf{rg}_{38}(m)$ the rank of team $m$ after match day 38. This deviation from prediction, is a kind of measure, //how well they have done!// The larger $d$ the better they have performed, negativ $d$ means they have under performed, compared to the predictions. Sorting all teams accordingly from high $d$ to small $d$ is shown in the chart below. 
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 On top are those teams which have //over performed// and on the bottom those which have //under performed//.  To judge whether it is really over- or under performed so far, those errors must be taken into account. All teams which are placed within this error bars, i.e. from 3.-17. rank, are roughly in the rang one could expect. On top are those teams which have //over performed// and on the bottom those which have //under performed//.  To judge whether it is really over- or under performed so far, those errors must be taken into account. All teams which are placed within this error bars, i.e. from 3.-17. rank, are roughly in the rang one could expect.
  
-So, the really **positive surprising** teams are really **Wolves**. The **+So, the really **positive surprising** teams are  **Sheffield United** and **Burnley**, the most disappointing teams are **Watford**, **West Ham** and **Everton**.
  
-*/+ 
 +==== Comparison best prediction ==== 
 +The chart with the best prediction ordered by means of smallest mean-average-error $d$, is shown below.  
 + 
 +{{1920:mae_pl.png?640}}  
 + 
 +The two best predictions are the expert from //lastwordonfootball.com// **LWF** and the betting ranking covers.com **COC**. 
  
  
 {{tag>pl19 predictions}} {{tag>pl19 predictions}}
  • Zuletzt geändert: 2019/12/28 09:09
  • von admin