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| — | 1920:predictions_pl [2019/12/28 09:09] – [Interim results after the first round] admin |
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| | ===== Predictions for Premier League season 2019/20 ===== |
| | We compare predictions for the outcome of **Premier League** season 2019/20. Included are only popular sites and those who have a web page for reference of the prediction and published before 09.08.2019. Eventually, at the end of the season, we compare all predictions like as it was done for the [[1819:predictions_pl|Premiere League 2018/19]]. |
| | |
| | ==== Sites / Institutes ==== |
| | The following xx sites or institutes have published a prediction or rankings: |
| |
| | * BBC [[https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/49236095|BBC Sport]] Expert: Phil McNulty |
| | * BVB [[https://blog.betvictor.com/en-gb/sports/football/english-football/premier-league/michaels-premier-league-team-by-team-season-preview-2019-20/|BetVictor]] Expert Michael Owen |
| | * BRF [[https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2837292-epl-schedule-2019-20-predicting-every-clubs-record|Bleacher Report Football]] Experts |
| | * COC [[https://www.covers.com/Editorial/Article/79b11a16-a725-11e9-a984-125516351e3a/Premier-League-betting-tips-odds-predictions-and-best-value-picks|covers.com]] Betting: covers.com |
| | * ECI [[https://www.euroclubindex.com/league-odds/|EuroClubIndex]] Algorithm |
| | * ELO [[http://clubelo.com/ENG|ClubElo 06.08.19]] Ranking |
| | * FFT [[https://www.fourfourtwo.com/features/predicted-premier-league-table-201920-man-utd-arsenal-liverpool-chelsea-man-city-tottenham|FourFourTwo]] Experts |
| | * FOR [[https://www.forbes.com/sites/bobbymcmahon/2019/08/09/premier-league-201920-predictions/|Forbes.com]] Expert: Bobby McMahon |
| | * FST [[https://www.freesupertips.com/news/fsts-premier-league-full-table-prediction/|freesupertips]] Expert: based on betting |
| | * GOI [[https://twitter.com/Goalimpact/status/1159539025021157376|@Goalimpact]] Algorithm: Player based |
| | * GOP [[https://goalprojection.com/2019/08/04/2019-2020-premier-league-projection/|Goalprojection.com]] Algorithm based on adjusted goals |
| | * KIF [[https://www.kickform.com/premier-league-tipps/|KickForm.com]] Algorithm |
| | * LWF [[https://lastwordonfootball.com/2019/08/05/premier-league-predictions-2019-2020-final-table/|LastWordOnFootball.com]] Expert |
| | * MIR [[https://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/robbie-savages-premier-league-predictions-18876667|Mirror.co.uk]] Expert: Robbie Savage |
| | * NIM [[https://www.90min.com/posts/6427973-premier-league-table-90min-experts-cough-predict-2019-20-finishing-positions|90Min]] Experts |
| | * OFC [[https://onefootball.com/en/news/the-201920-premier-league-table-predicted-en-26687118?variable=20190810|OneFootball.com]] Experts |
| | * OSC [[https://www.oddschecker.com/tips/football/20190806-premier-league-2019-20-betting-tips-predictions|oddschecker.com]] Expert |
| | * RPC [[https://www.racingpost.com/sport/ranked-all-20-premier-league-clubs-in-order-of-finishing-position/394223|Racing Post]] Expert: BRUCE MILLINGTON |
| | * RTC [[https://www.radiotimes.com/news/sport/2019-08-04/premier-league-2019-20-season-preview-every-team-rated-predictions/|RadioTimes.com]] Experts |
| | * SBT [[https://sport.bt.com/the-script/the-script-of-the-201920-season-google-opta-and-squawka-predict-premier-league-champions-league-and-europa-league-outcomes-S11364380558801|BT.com]] BT.com: AI/Machine learning with data from OPTA, Squawka |
| | * SKY [[https://www.skysports.com/football/news/29329/11780224/predicted-premier-league-table-201920-matt-le-tissiers-verdict-ahead-of-opening-game|Sky Sport Expert]] Expert: Matt Le Tissier |
| | * SNB [[https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/football/9289224/premier-league-table-supercomputer-man-utd-arsenal/|SportNatio.com]] Betting |
| | * SPI [[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/|Soccer Power Index]] Algorithm by @FiveThirtyEight |
| | * SSB [[https://starspreads.com/events/eng-premier-league,eng-premier-league-201920-season-points,E2LVZUU6/|Star Spreads]] Betting - Point Market |
| | * TCO [[http://www.thecourieronline.co.uk/premier-league-predictions-2019-20/|thecourier]] Expert |
| | * TGC [[http://www.thegurgler.com/2019/08/06/a-who-cares-2019-20-premier-league-season-predictions/|TheGurgler.com]] Expert |
| | * TFF [[https://thefootballfaithful.com/premier-league-2019-20-predictions-city-liverpool-united-arsenal/|The football Faithful]] Experts |
| | * TGT [[https://www.thegamblingtimes.com/2019/08/07/premier-league-preview-2019/|TheGamblingTimes]] Betting: bet365 |
| | * TIT [[https://www.irishtimes.com/sport/soccer/english-soccer/premier-league-team-by-team-guide-to-the-new-season-1.3979790|The Irish Times]] Expert: Patrick Madden |
| | * TMW [[https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/premier-league/marktwerteverein/wettbewerb/GB1/plus/?stichtag=2019-08-01|@Transfermarkt]] Ranking |
| | * TSF [[https://talksport.com/football/577410/ultimate-2019-20-premier-league-preview-everything-you-need-to-know-including-fixtures-signings-kits-odds/|talkSport]] Experts |
| | * YAH [[https://sports.yahoo.com/premier-league-preview-predictions-for-the-201920-season-231120516.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAACxRowY80iQht8v5I23AvLVutAe8ji6XlawIqWEnP5UBXwmSnNRQ2dgd0XE8EAE0fZ6xsNi8mZOGovu7HBYoYeRpqS2BuHyn__2Q2bKzn7pN38JjtKhK1PQylNCBzGhKgQpn2KIymUvD_gws42APd2IdgBYI4zBW9-eNqSD8TKJw|Yahoo]] Experts |
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| | |
| | Not all //predictions// are really predictions but rankings based upon results, market value, and other sophisticated models. Those are included as references. Some of them like //@Goalimpact// or //Club Soccer Index// are rankings, but based on their models a prediction was published. |
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| | |
| | ==== Teams ==== |
| | * AFC Bournemouth = #AFCB {{t:afcb.png?15}} |
| | * Aston Villa = #AVFC {{t:avfc.png?15}} |
| | * Brighton & Hove Albion = #BHAFC {{t:bhafc.png?15}} |
| | * Crystal Palace = #CPFC {{t:cpfc.png?15}} |
| | * FC Arsenal = #AFC {{t:afc.png?15}} |
| | * FC Burnley = #Clarets {{t:clarets.png?15}} |
| | * FC Chelsea = #CFC {{t:cfc.png?15}} |
| | * FC Everton = #EFC {{t:efc.png?15}} |
| | * FC Liverpool = #LFC {{t:lfc.png?15}} |
| | * FC Southampton = #SaintsFC {{t:saintsfc.png?15}} |
| | * FC Watford = #WatfordFC {{t:watfordfc.png?15}} |
| | * Leicester City = #LCFC {{t:lcfc.png?15}} |
| | * Manchester City = #MCFC {{t:mcfc.png?15}} |
| | * Manchester United = #MUFC {{t:mufc.png?15}} |
| | * Newcastle United = #NUFC {{t:nufc.png?15}} |
| | * Norwich City = #NCFC {{t:ncfc.png?15}} |
| | * Sheffiled United = #SUFC {{t:sufc.png?15}} |
| | * Tottenham Hotspur = #COYS {{t:coys.png?15}} |
| | * West Ham United = #WHUFC {{t:whufc.png?15}} |
| | * Wolverhampton Wanderers = #WWFC {{t:wwfc.png?15}} |
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| | |
| | ==== Predictions ==== |
| | Below the predictions are tabulated in alphabetically order. |
| | |
| | |Team |BBC|BVB|BRF|COC|ECI|ELO|FFT|FOR|FST|GOI|GOP|KIF|LWF|MIR|NIM|OFC|OSC|RPC|RTC|SBT|SKY|SNB|SPI|SSB|TCO|TFF|TGC|TGT|TIT|TMW|TSF|YAH| ST| |
| | |AFCB | 13| 18| 13| 15| 17| 13| 14| 13| 14| 19| 13| 14| 13| 13| 13| 15| 17| 12| 12| 13| 14| 15| 11| 13| 11| 13| 19| 15| 12| 10| 13| 13| | |
| | |AVFC | 14| 14| 16| 17| 18| 20| 15| 15| 16| 17| 17| 19| 12| 15| 14| 17| 13| 15| 13| 15| 17| 16| 17| 15| 15| 14| 14| 16| 13| 18| 15| 15| | |
| | |BHAFC | 18| 16| 18| 16| 20| 19| 19| 17| 19| 15| 20| 17| 17| 17| 19| 13| 15| 18| 17| 16| 16| 17| 18| 18| 17| 17| 20| 17| 19| 16| 16| 20| | |
| | |CPFC | 16| 17| 19| 14| 10| 8 | 18| 10| 10| 10| 10| 10| 16| 12| 16| 16| 18| 17| 15| 10| 13| 14| 10| 14| 12| 15| 13| 13| 15| 15| 12| 12| | |
| | |AFC | 6 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 5 | | |
| | |Clarets | 15| 12| 11| 18| 16| 15| 13| 16| 15| 18| 19| 16| 10| 14| 15| 18| 14| 16| 19| 17| 18| 18| 16| 16| 14| 16| 17| 18| 16| 17| 17| 16| | |
| | |CFC | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 6 | | |
| | |EFC | 7 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 10| 9 | 10| 8 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | | |
| | |LFC | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | | |
| | |SaintsFC | 12| 13| 10| 12| 13| 16| 12| 14| 12| 8 | 14| 15| 14| 18| 11| 11| 10| 13| 14| 14| 12| 13| 14| 11| 13| 12| 15| 14| 11| 12| 14| 14| | |
| | |WatfordFC| 11| 11| 12| 13| 12| 14| 11| 11| 11| 14| 12| 13| 11| 11| 12| 12| 12| 11| 11| 12| 11| 12| 15| 12| 16| 11| 11| 12| 14| 13| 11| 11| | |
| | |LCFC | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 13| 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 10| 8 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | | |
| | |MCFC | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | | |
| | |MUFC | 5 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | | |
| | |NUFC | 20| 20| 17| 10| 14| 12| 18| 18| 18| 16| 15| 12| 18| 16| 17| 20| 16| 19| 16| 18| 15| 8| 13| 17| 19| 18| 18| 11| 17| 14| 18| 17| | |
| | |NCFC | 19| 15| 15| 19| 15| 17| 17| 19| 17| 9 | 16| 18| 20| 20| 18| 14| 19| 20| 18| 19| 19| 19| 19| 19| 20| 19| 12| 19| 18| 19| 19| 18| | |
| | |SUFC | 17| 19| 20| 20| 19| 18| 20| 20| 20| 20| 18| 20| 19| 19| 20| 19| 20| 14| 20| 20| 20| 20| 20| 20| 18| 20| 16| 20| 20| 20| 20| 19| | |
| | |COYS | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | | |
| | |WHUFC | 10| 7 | 14| 11| 11| 10| 10| 12| 13| 11| 11| 11| 15| 9 | 8 | 8 | 11| 9 | 9 | 11| 10| 11| 12| 10| 10| 10| 9 | 10| 10| 9 | 10| 10| | |
| | |WWFC | 9 | 10| 9 | 7 | 9 | 11| 9 | 7 | 9 | 12| 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 10| 9 | 9 | 10| 10| 8 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 10| 8 | 9 | 11| 9 | 8 | | |
| | |
| | Graphically all predictions are ordered by the average prediction. Shown are the average prediction as bars together with standard deviation as error bars in grey. The colored points mark the single predictions of the above mentioned sites. |
| | |
| | /* Asterisks ($\star$) mark betting-predictions, triangles ($\triangle$) votings, bullets ($\bullet$) rankings, diamonds ($\diamond$) experts and squares ($\square$) algorithms. |
| | */ |
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| | {{1920:pred_pl.png?640}} |
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| | |
| | ==== Interim results after the first round ==== |
| | === Deviation from prediction === |
| | {{1920:pred_mw-st_pl.png?640}} |
| | === Prediction score === |
| | {{1920:mae_pl.png?640}} |
| | /* |
| | ==== Comparison of average team predictions ==== |
| | The following chart shows the final Premier League table together with the average predictions as $+$. The red circles mark the final standings. As well, the three best predictions are included (see discussion below), based on the //best// mean-absolut-error prediction. |
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| | {{1920:pred_pl_st.png?640}} |
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| | For a better comparison we use the difference: $d(m):=\mathsf{rg}_{p}(m)-\mathsf{rg}_{38}(m)$ with $\mathsf{rg}_{p}(m)$ as the average prediction rank of team $m$ and $\mathsf{rg}_{38}(m)$ the rank of team $m$ after match day 38. This deviation from prediction, is a kind of measure, //how well they have done!// The larger $d$ the better they have performed, negativ $d$ means they have under performed, compared to the predictions. Sorting all teams accordingly from high $d$ to small $d$ is shown in the chart below. |
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| | {{1920:pred_mw-st_pl.png?640}} |
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| | On top are those teams which have //over performed// and on the bottom those which have //under performed//. To judge whether it is really over- or under performed so far, those errors must be taken into account. All teams which are placed within this error bars, i.e. from 3.-17. rank, are roughly in the rang one could expect. |
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| | So, the really **positive surprising** teams are really **Wolves**. The ** |
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| | */ |
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| | {{tag>pl19 predictions}} |